Climate-mode initialization for decadal climate predictions
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
The Interpretation and Use of Biases in Decadal Climate Predictions
Decadal climate predictions exhibit large biases, which are often subtracted and forgotten. However, understanding the causes of bias is essential to guide efforts to improve prediction systems, and may offer additional benefits. Here the origins of biases in decadal predictions are investigated, including whether analysis of these biases might provide useful information. The focus is especiall...
متن کاملDecadal climate prediction (project GCEP).
Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to...
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A number of studies indicate an apparent slowdown in the overall rise in global average surface temperature between roughly 1998 and 2014. Most models did not predict such a slowdown—a fact that stimulated a lot of new research on variability of Earth’s climate system. At a September 2015 workshop, leading scientists gathered to discuss current understanding of climate variability on decadal ti...
متن کاملDecadal Climate Predictability and Prediction
What: Forty-five researchers met to discuss strategies to better understand and predict decadal climate variability. When: 12–15 October 2009 Where: St. Michaels, Maryland T he importance of decadal climate variability (DCV) research is being increasingly recognized, including by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). An improved unde...
متن کاملImproving Decadal Climate Predictability through the Initialization of a Coupled Model with the GECCO Oceanic Synthesis
This study aims at improving the forecast skill of climate predictions through the use of ocean synthesis data as initial conditions of a coupled climate model. For this purpose, the coupled model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, consisting of the atmosphere model ECHAM5 and the ocean model MPI-OM, is initialized with oceanic synthesis fields available from the German contribution t...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Climate Dynamics
سال: 2019
ISSN: 0930-7575,1432-0894
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04975-y